The cost, for farmers and industry alike, is likely to be prohibitive. The New Zealand Institute of Economic Research, an independent consulting firm, recently estimated that the government's plan would result in 22,000 job losses by 2012, or 1% of today's employment. That translates into NZ$4.6 billion ($3.6 billion) annually in lost GDP, or a NZ$3,000 cut in each household's annual spending.
This analysis assumes that as greenhouse gas fees make Kiwi industry less competitive globally, businesses and jobs will move overseas. The government disputes this conclusion, mainly because its own analyses assume New Zealanders will be willing to take lower wages. That's debateable, to say the least.
That aside, give the Kiwis credit for honesty. Having signed up for Kyoto, they're actually talking about shouldering the costs of meeting their commitments. Whether or not they end up regretting it, other countries will now have a chance to see what the anticarbon crusade does to an economy.
So how do you feel about being the guinea pig?
1 comment:
Kiwis have to accept lower wages if they stay in NZ.
it's just simple economics: NZ is 1/3 less productive than Australia - that means Kiwis are 1/3 overpaid when they work in NZ.
NZ wages rates need to fall to 70% or even 50% of current costs for it to be competitive.
Similarly, tax rates need to be pegged at least 5% more like 10% less than Australia in perpetuity - simply to ensure NZ remains competitive.
A carbon charge only makes things worse.
* * * * * * *
But, sadly, Helen is half-right. We have a choice: we either do what is necessary to meet Kyoto - or else we flush 15% of our EU trade down the gurgler.
Helen is trying to do both: cozy up to China *and* run carbon standards to satisfy the EU. Can't be done. Pick one.
Post a Comment